A Google search of the question, “When does the current collective bargaining agreement in Major League Baseball expire?” yielding the quick answer of December 2021.

OK, mark your calendars for the possibility of another strike. Having flashbacks of 1994? Don’t worry, I don’t think the World Series is getting canceled, as this hypothetical strike would begin in the offseason instead of August of the 2022 season, but things could get pretty testy.

As of my writing this — Thursday afternoon — baseball’s two biggest free agents, third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado and outfielder Bryce Harper, have yet to sign with a team. Pitchers and catchers reported to their teams’ spring training compound last week. Full squad workouts begin this week.

For a reference point, one of the bigger free agents during the 2017-18 offseason was designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who didn’t sign with the Boston Red Sox until Feb. 26, 2018. Martinez probably felt he was worth more than the five-year, $110 million contract with which he ultimately ended up, but Boston was the only team paying, so he got what he got.

This offseason has seen one big signing in left-handed starting pitcher Patrick Corbin, who inked a six-year, $140 million deal with the Washington Nationals, and a bunch of smaller signings. If you’re an Atlanta Braves fan, your team’s biggest signings were a pair of one-year deals: Josh Donaldson for one year at $23 million and Nick Markakis for one year at $6 million. Markakis was a re-signing after having a productive year in right field for Atlanta last season, while Donaldson was something of a risk/reward signing. When healthy, he’s a very good third baseman, but he hasn’t played a full season since 2016.

Oh, and Brian McCann is back on a one-year, $2 million deal, but at 34 he’s past his prime and probably mostly there to help guide the Braves’ pitching staff.

The thing that makes the non-signings (again, as of this writing) of Harper and Machado so eye-opening is the fact that they’re two elite players who are only 26 years old. Yes, Harper has injury concerns and Machado comes with questions about whether or not he’ll hustle, but we’re still talking about star players in their prime. For comparison, the biggest free agent signing in MLB history was Alex Rodriguez at 10 years, $275 million. (Giancarlo Stanton’s 10-year, $325 million was not a free agent signing, as he agreed to that deal while he was still a player for the Miami Marlins.)

The history of A-Rod’s second deal includes one World Series title, some PED drama and eventually getting bought out toward the end of the contract when his production no longer warranted he be an everyday player. People will point to that deal and say, “That’s why no one is handing out the 10-year, $300-plus million contracts that Machado and Harper supposedly want.”

It’s not a fair comparison, though. For a more realistic comparison, let’s look at A-Rod’s first free agent deal, when he signed with the Texas Rangers for 10 years and $252 million. Had he never opted out of the deal, it would have lasted from the 2001 season to the 2010 season. Here are his numbers over that timeframe: .299 batting average, .394 on-base percentage, .577 slugging percentage, 424 home runs and 1,236 RBIs for his ages 25-34 seasons.

You can’t tell me that’s not worthwhile production, especially if he remained a shortstop for most of the contract instead of moving to third after being traded to the Yankees. Machado will turn 27 in July, while Harper will turn 27 in October. It’s unlikely either gets a 10-year deal at this point, but would eight years really be too much to ask considering they would only be 34 by the time such deals ended?

So what’s going on? Why hasn’t some team stepped up and offered eight years at close to $300 million considering the players’ ages? Baseball seems to be moving away from from those kinds of deals. A few points to consider:

•Analytics, or the mathematical evaluation of a player’s value, has become almost mainstream throughout baseball. It’s possible that teams are simply avoiding the long-term deals because their analytical departments are saying the players simply aren’t worth that kind of money and risk, even if they’re the generational type like Harper and Machado are.

•Revenue is significantly higher all throughout baseball than it was a decade ago. Forbes.com’s Maury Brown reported in January that MLB saw record revenues of $10.3 billion in 2018. (https://bit.ly/2X2zatP) It goes on to say that it’s the 16th consecutive year the league saw record gross revenues. Sponsorship revenues increased, while TV revenues were “largely flat,” according to the article.

The TV deals and sponsorships are likely why we keep seeing increases. It’s possible that owners are simply greedy — this is my personal belief — in that they don’t need to put together a contender in order to make money and would rather pocket the revenues. This leads to my next point…

•It bewilders me that sports fans would rather see these billionaire owners pocket that money instead of invest it in a talent like Harper or Machado. “You mean they might not get $300 million to play a game? Well boo hoo. No one deserves that money,” they cry. But if it’s not going to the players, it’s staying with the owners who are already much more well off than the players. Wouldn’t the sport be better off if the players saw some of these riches?

•Phillies ace Aaron Nola, the former LSU standout, recently agreed to a four-year, $45 million extension. He was arbitration eligible this year and is guaranteed $38.75 million from the 2019 through the 2022 season with a $2 million signing bonus and a $16 million team option for the 2023 season. If the option is declined, Nola is owed a $4.25 million buyout. 

Nola was due to become a free agent after the 2021 season, but he instead chose to remain with the Phillies at least through the 2022 season and possibly through the 2023 season. If Nola reaches free agency after the 2023 season, he will be 30 years old. Why agree to the deal when he may have gotten a bigger payday as a free agent? Because with the way things are trending, there is no guarantee he gets the kind of money he would likely be worth. At age 30, his age will be used against him in free agent discussions. I’m only speculating here, but I imagine Nola has been paying attention to the current free agent market and decided to take the guaranteed money now.

With all that in mind, here’s what we know: The current system is rigged against the players. Despite record revenues, free agent contracts aren’t increasing in money and longevity. That December 2021 date I mentioned at the start? When the CBA expires, expect some tough negotiations between the Players Association and MLB, if not an outright strike.

The players will be called greedy no matter what, but personally, I would have to take their side in such a scenario. The league is swimming in money. Give the guys who do the most work a bigger piece of the pie.

Drew Kerekes is the sports editor of The Meridian Star. He can be reached at dkerekes@themeridianstar.com.