AUSTIN BISHOP: Surprise team could creep into the College Football Playoffs
Published 4:03 pm Tuesday, November 16, 2021
It was a month ago when I boldly — or recklessly, some would say — stepped out and predicted which four teams would make up NCAA football’s version of the Final Four.
Just to catch you up, I went with Georgia and Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl and Oklahoma and Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31 hoping to earn a spot in the National Championship Game on Jan. 10 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
A lot of things can change in four weeks, so let’s take a second look at the teams most likely to be chosen for the NCAA football playoffs. There are only three unbeaten teams remaining in the Associated Press or Coaches Poll Top 25 — the University of Georgia, the University of Cincinnati and the University of Texas-San Antonio. While both Georgia and Cincinnati are among the favorites to make the Final Four, UTSA has absolutely no shot.
The Roadrunners, whose biggest win came over Illinois by the score 37-30, have regular-season games against Alabama-Birmingham and the University of North Texas. No matter what UTSA does, it won’t be good enough to even get close to getting in the top 10, much less the top four teams.
While three of the picks in my previous column still have a chance to reach their goals, Oklahoma’s hopes have dwindled following a 27-14 loss to Baylor last week. Even a Big XII Championship title isn’t going to be enough to get the Sooners back in the hunt for the NCAA Championship Game.
Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan, all with 9-1 records, each have a shot at being among the chosen four. Oregon has a bit of an advantage because it owns a win over Ohio State, while Michigan State has beaten Michigan. But, Oregon has a bad loss to Stanford, and Michigan State lost to Purdue.
The Big Ten’s best chance to get a team in the playoffs is for the Ohio State-Michigan winner to win the conference title and finish the season with just one loss.
At this point, if Oregon defeats Utah and Oregon State, then wins the Pac 12 title the Ducks will likely take one of the four spots. But, it just doesn’t feel like that will happen. But for argument’s sake, let’s say Oregon does just that.
That brings it down to Ohio State and Michigan, and in that case I just have to go with the Buckeyes.
If Georgia heads in the SEC Championship game undefeated they are likely assured of making the playoffs, especially if there opponent is, as expected, a one-loss Alabama team.
A loss, and UGA still makes it, and a win means the Bulldogs are absolutely in. If Cincinnati finishes the season undefeated and wins the American Athletic Conference championship, the Bearcats will at least be among the top five.
That gives the playoff committee five teams — Georgia, Alabama, Cincinnati, Oregon and Ohio State to choose from.
If Georgia beats Alabama, then the playoffs are set. It will not pick a two-loss Alabama team over undefeated Cincinnati and one-loss Oregon and Ohio State. If Alabama wins, that will leave the committee with a choice of an Ohio State team with a better body of work and an Oregon team that defeated Ohio State.
Even though many continue to say the Bearcats don’t have a chance to make it, I still have Georgia and Cincinnati as my two favorites to get in. I believe Ohio State will be in as well and Oregon will have a second loss, as will Alabama.
That leaves us looking for that fourth team. If Oklahoma State or Oklahoma is left with only one loss, then that team will be considered, as will one many have totally forgotten about — Notre Dame.
The Irish should be able to take care of both Georgia Tech and Stanford. The biggest win on the resume would be a 41-13 win over Wisconsin, with the loss coming by the score of 24-13 to what would then be an undefeated Cincinnati squad.
So here is my adjusted Final Four: Georgia and Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl, and Cincinnati and Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. That’s a game the Bearcats would be hungry for, while Buckeye Nation would enjoy an opportunity to put Cincinnati “in its place.”
If that happens, then look for Georgia and OSU to play in the title game.
But who knows? We still have plenty of games left to play.
Austin Bishop, AKA The Old Sports Dude, has been covering high school, college, amateur and professional sports since 1975. He is currently pastor of Great Commission Assembly of God in Philadelphia. He may be contacted by email at starsportsboss@yahoo.com.