Tight ends: A thin position with high upside
Published 5:02 am Thursday, August 7, 2014
Now we are getting deep into the fantasy preseason, so today I am going to rank tight ends, but I am also going to try and give you some tips on a draft strategy as well.
Tight end is one of the thinnest positions in fantasy football. If you don’t draft one of the top five guys then you might as well draft the 10th or 11th. There are a few guys that should really put up a lot of points at this position, and all of the other starters will more than likely be lumped together in the middle.
First Tier
1. Jimmy Graham.
That’s it! He is the only guy that I feel I can list as a sure thing to be a stud, and if you look at many expert mock drafts you will notice he is the only guy going in the first two rounds. So if you are picking late in the first round of a 12 team league and want to take Graham that’s not a terrible pick, but he is the only possibility.
Second Set
2. Julius Thomas. 3. Rob Gronkowski. 4. Jordan Cameron. 5. Vernon Davis.
Here are the other four guys that I would be really excited to own. These should be (barring injury) the top-five scorers at this position this year, and if Josh Gordon’s suspension is upheld, then expect Cameron to be a name that you hear a lot more this season.
Still Starters
6. Greg Olsen. 7. Jason Witten. 8. Dennis Pitta. 9. Jordan Reed. 10. Kyle Rudolph.
11. Martellius Bennett. 12. Charles Clay.
Now Olsen and Witten are still really solid options at tight end, but really from Pitta to Clay (and even a few players beyond Clay) there shouldn’t be a huge difference. So if you can get one of the top-five or maybe seven players then take them, but if not just draft wide receivers and running back and wait to grab a tight end in one of the last three rounds.
Other Names to Know
Eric Ebron: This guy is a wild card if there is one. He was drafted in the first round and has the size and talent to make an immediate impact and is on a team that loves to throw. But he is a rookie, and has had some drop problems. Take a safer option early then look to take him late as he could be a top-10 tight end this year.
Ladarius Green: There is one thing keeping this guy from being a top-five tight end, Antonio Gates. They both play in San Diego, and Gates is the veteran and gets most of the snaps. If there is an injury to Gates, or if the snap count starts to shift, then Green is a guy that you want to own.
OK, now for a little draft strategy. I did you a favor and ran some mock drafts, and also analyzed multiple mock drafts from four different major fantasy sites to find some trends in how the experts were drafting. and what do you know? It’s right on par with the advice I’ve already given.
On average there was only one or zero quarterbacks taken in the first round. Most of these experts either took Peyton Manning (sixth round or later) or no quarterback at all. Of course Graham, was the only tight end ever taken in the first round of these drafts.
In fact, not one of these drafts saw a single quarterback not named Manning, Brees, or Rodgers were taken before the fourth round. As a matter of fact, these 10 and 12 team leagues averaged seeing 27 RB’s and 26 WR’s taken before the fifth quarterback came off the board, usually in the sixth round.
So what does this tell us? If you don’t get Manning, Brees or Rodgers, then you should probably have at least two running backs and wide receivers, and possibly one tight end on your team before you ever draft a quarterback
More on draft strategy next week as we examine what positions are best to take in the first four rounds, and I will also rank defense/special teams.
Oh, and a word to the wise: Don’t pull your hair out if you don’t get your No. 1 guy. After all, it is fantasy football and it was invented to have fun and make real football more interesting. If you draft before next week best of luck, and if you have questions, hit me up on twitter: @Bro_KP!
Zach Kilpatrick is a Fantasy Football columnist for The Meridian Star