The math for tax cuts gets a “bit tricky,” wrote the Magnolia Tribune in an article about cutting the sales tax on groceries. “Add in another likely attempt to fully eliminate the state income tax, and the path for more taxpayer relief is clouded at best.”

The growth in state tax revenues has slowed considerably, further darkening the cloud. Revenues through November were up less than1% over the prior year, far below the growth in recent years.

Still, cuts to grocery sales taxes and the personal income tax remain priorities for state leaders. All three want to cut taxes, but Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann wants to be more cautious than the other two.

The personal income tax will be cut this year. Legislation passed in 2022 will continue to phase the tax down to 4% over the next two years.

Gov. Tate Reeves wants to completely eliminate it, his top legislative goal for 2025.

Speaker of the House Jason White wants to eliminate it by phasing it down over the next eight to 10 years. He also wants to cut the 7% sales tax on groceries in half and provide sustainable funding for roads and bridges, possibly by increasing the 18.4% gas tax.

Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann wants to continue phasing down the personal income tax over the next four years but stop at 3%. He also wants to cut the sales tax on groceries from 7% to 5%. And he thinks maintaining a minimum sales tax could help provide reliable funding for roads and bridges.

Eliminating the personal income tax is a big deal. This year the already reduced tax is projected to pull in $2.1 billion in state revenues. That compares to $2.9 billion in net sales tax revenues for the state. Sales taxes would have to increase 79% to make up for a $2.1 billion cut.

Cutting the sales tax on groceries may be more daunting. In addition to funding state government, sales taxes also serve as a major source of income for municipalities. The state diverts 18.5% of collections to municipalities.

State leaders say they want municipalities to be made whole for any cuts. That gets complicated. For some towns, sales taxes on groceries make up a large percentage of total sales taxes, not so much for others.

Speaker White said one way to make municipalities whole may be to allow them to adopt additional local sales taxes. Other legislators suggested increasing local property taxes. Adding local taxes is not an appealing solution to most communities.

Bottom line – only Hosemann seems attentive to the risks posed by declining revenue growth. It will be interesting to see if all three state leaders can reach agreement on how much to cut.

Crawford is the author of “A Republican’s Lament: Mississippi Needs Good Government Conservatives.”