Crawford_Bill.jpg

Do the Republican primary results show Gov. Tate Reeves in trouble for the general election? The relatively high 25% vote attained by his two little known opponents has sparked rampant speculation.

This speculation arises from comparing this year’s vote to primaries when three other Republican governors ran for re-election. In 2015, little known Mitch Young garnered 8% of the vote against Gov. Phil Bryant. In 2007, little known Frederick L. Jones got 7% of the vote against Gov. Haley Barbour. In 1995, little known Richard O’Hara and frequent candidate George “Wagon Wheel” Blair pulled in 6% of the vote together against Gov. Kirk Fordice.

This year little known Dr. John Witcher and David Hardigree won over 25% of the vote against Gov. Reeves.

With the average ‘aginner vote in Republican primaries around 7% based on the historic results above, who were the remaining 18%, about 66,000 voters?

One scenario suggests they were crossover Democrats.

With only one statewide race in the Democratic Primary, fewer voters participated compared to four years ago. In 2019, gubernatorial candidates pulled in 302,570 votes; unopposed down ticket races for Agriculture Commissioner and State Treasurer pulled in 253,042 and 251,591 respectively. This year, the only contested statewide race, for Agriculture Commissioner, pulled in 188,828 votes. Clearly, 60,000 or more Democrats either didn’t vote or crossed over.

While crossover was possible, the vote results provide little evidence for such. In 2019, 381,604 voted for governor in the Republican Primary. In 2023, that number was down to 369,028. A large crossover vote should have increased the total. The total vote for the highly contested race between Chris McDaniel and Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann did pull in 6,253 more votes than the governor’s race, far from 60,000 plus.

Of course, it is possible that a large crossover occurred in 2019 too when retired Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller, Jr., challenged Reeves in the Republican Primary. But unlikely since the Democratic Primary turnout in 2019 was up 3,202 votes from 2015.

Still, if there were crossover Democrats, they were already going to vote Democrat in November.

The other scenario is that the extra 60,000 plus voters are disgruntled Republicans who will now vote for Reeves’ opponent in the general election.

In 2019, Reeves beat Democratic nominee Jim Hood by around 45,000 votes. Another 60,000 votes would have swung the election to Hood. Speculators suggest that could happen this November for Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.

That large a switch is unlikely. Many Republicans disgruntled with Reeves are more likely to not vote in the governor’s race than to vote for the Democratic nominee. And most conservative Republicans who liked Witcher and Hardigree will likely vote for Reeves if they vote.

Bill Crawford is a syndicated columnist from Jackson.