Listen to ruling Republicans, their aligned talking heads, and even some media and you would be certain Mississippi suffered a significant undercount in the recent 2020 Census.

But, census numbers, even follow-up numbers, don’t work to that degree of certainty.

In general, the Census Bureau reports basic data at an estimated 90% confidence level. When a higher level of confidence is sought, it uses statistical conversion factors to adjust its estimates.

The constitutionally required decennial census attempts to count every person. For first time for the 2020 Census, the Bureau made the Internet the primary self-reporting vehicle (along with conventional counting methods). People got postcards telling them how to register and enter data. There were also social media posts and extensive advertising. In addition, states established Complete Count Committees to support census activities.

In March, the Census Bureau issued its “2020 Post-Enumeration Survey Estimation Report” wherein it compared the census count with other demographic estimates and a follow-up sample survey. The report concluded that 94.4% of the population had been correctly counted, 2.8% were counted erroneously, 2.8% were counted but had to have their demographic data imputed, and 0.6% had to have their data fully imputed.

The Census Bureau further estimated the population estimates for 36 states were pretty much on target, for 8 states were too high, and for 6 states were too low.

Mississippi was one of those six states with estimated undercounts. Notably, Mississippi’s miss came in at -4.11%, albeit with a 90% confidence level that the error was somewhere between -1.43% and -6.79%. Another chart showed Mississippi’s “dual system enumeration” rate was 90.1% with “omissions” at 9.9%.

What all that means after imputation, estimation, and adjustment is the certainty that Mississippi’s census numbers were right or wrong and to what degree are uncertain.

(Want to dig deeper? Google 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey.)

It’s not like Mississippi didn’t try to get the count right.

On August 7, 2019, Gov. Phil Bryant issued an executive order establishing a Complete Count Committee for Mississippi. He charged the 25-member committee, chaired by Sen. Giles Ward, to accomplish the following duties to ensure an accurate count in Mississippi: a) Advise the Governor and the Mississippi Legislature on census activities in the state; b) Identify barriers that might impede the progress of the 2020 Census in Mississippi; c) Promote and advertise the 2020 Census; d) Respond to residents’ questions and concerns about the census; e) Develop partnerships with regional and local Complete Count Committees to increase participation; f) Distribute and share census information with traditionally hard-to-count areas and populations; and g) Seek to ensure the highest census participation rate possible.

Apparently more needed to get done.

Despite the Census Bureau’s follow-up estimates that Mississippi’s population estimate was low, it will not change Mississippi’s count. And that’s the rest of this problematic story.

“Then Satan stood up against Israel and moved David to number Israel. So David said to Joab and to the princes of the people, “Go, number Israel from Beersheba even to Dan, and bring me word that I may know their number.” – 1 Chronicles 21:1-2

Crawford is a syndicated columnist from Jackson