When I was younger, in the second grade to be exact, I took an IQ test.

Now at the time I didn’t realize that this was an IQ test. I was simply told that they wanted me to answer some questions and do some puzzles, so I did. Well, there are two things that I clearly remember about the test. One, there were a lot of puzzles and questions that measured your ability to pick up on patterns and, two, the lady asked me if I knew what a pharmacist did.

I don’t exactly remember what my answer was, but I’m guessing it might not have been correct, because I remember her laughing. (My dad is a pharmacist.)

Well, one thing that you need to be able to do in order to pick Fantasy players is to be able to look at patterns of numbers in a way that helps them make sense. This week, I am going to give you picks based strictly on numbers and not hunches, and we’ll see how they turn out.

No, I’m not going to tell you how I did on the IQ test, but hopefully my picks this week will show whether I can still put together a puzzle or not.

Greater Than:

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami — Consensus: No. 20. Me: Top-15.

Tannehill has been the 21st best QB in football this season, which isn’t great, but this week he will face the softest pass defense that he has seen all year in the Titans. However, they have been decent (22nd best), but that’s playing against worse QBs (except one). Tannehill has been 21st against better defenses, and the Titans have been 22nd versus worse QBs. To me, this puzzle says that he should be greater than 20th this week.

Anquan Boldin, WR, San Francisco — Consensus: No. 28. Me: Top-25 (possibly top-20).

Boldin has not been the safest option this season, scoring over 15 twice, over 25 once, and under 10 three times. However, he too has played some tough secondaries, and the one soft one he has faced (the Giants) was this past week, and he scored 28. He averages seven-plus targets per game, which clearly leads his team, and he’s playing the 30th-ranked pass defense this week — at home. Those numbers sound greater than 28th to me.

Less Than:

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle — Consensus: No. 9 Me: In the teens.

Let me preface this pick with a little information: It doesn’t take much to be a top-10 TE this year. The position has been especially shallow this season, and Graham is one of the top-10 overall scorers while only averaging about 10 points per game. However, he is playing the best defense in the league versus opposing TEs and has only averaged 5.6 targets per game this season. Unless, he catches a TD, I don’t see any way he is a top-10 TE this week.

Chris Johnson, RB, Arizona — Consensus: No. 18 Me: Outside of top-20.

Johnson has looked really good this season, much more like the great back that played for a few years in Tennessee. However, Andre Ellington is back from injury and will vulture some carries, and David Johnson seems to be solidified as the goal-line back. But here are the numbers to know: Three RBs sharing carries, and Johnson not getting the most valuable ones (goal-line), the Steelers are one of the top-five rushing defenses this season, and that is against some pretty good opponents. Those numbers just don’t seem to yell top-20 RB to me this week.

Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego — Consensus: No. 9 Me: Around 15th.

 Rivers has been pretty solid this season so far, posting three really good games, one OK game and only one bad game. The problem is the twi worst games came in his only two road games, both against good pass defenses. In the two road games, he averaged only 243 yards (versus 375 per game average at home) and had one interception and one fumble in each. The bad news for Rivers owners is this week he plays a stout Packers pass defense at Green Bay. Those numbers, and that pattern, certainly sound like a guy that will be less than a top-10 play to me.