MOULTRIE, Ga. — Cindy Johnson’s butter pound cake normally fills her Moultrie shop with the sweet smells of Southern baking. But lately the popular confection is also threatening to eat up her profit margin.

Johnson’s recipe calls for 10 eggs. That became tougher for the veteran baker to stomach when egg prices jumped last month, due in part to an avian flu outbreak in other states.

She tried to wait it out, crossing her floured fingers that prices would drop. But, at this point, Johnson said she will likely have to discontinue some goodies and bump up what she’s asking for others.

“On cakes like red velvet, we’re already at a price that I don’t think Moultrie would pay any more for,” said Johnson, owner of the Corner Cakery. “On some things, you’re just kind of maxed out.”

Johnson’s is one of many Georgia businesses that are indirectly affected by avian influenza, which has wiped out millions of birds – mostly egg-layers – since emerging in the United States in December.

The baker said the price for a case of eggs – about 30 dozen – jumped from $53 to $88.97 in the span of a month. Some Georgia restauranteurs, who declined to talk on the record for fear of spooking customers, report similar increases.

In the New York region, the wholesale cost for a dozen large eggs was $1.69 in May – an increase of 30 percent from last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It was also a jump from $1.22 in April.

Price increases are affecting Georgia, too, even if the virus hasn’t turned up here yet.

As a leading poultry producer, the state contributes a significant number of eggs to the national market. And damages to top egg-producing states, like Iowa, have constrained the national supply.

How that translates to consumers varies by region, and even from store to store, said Joshua Berning, assistant professor of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Georgia. Some businesses can weather a shortage better than others.

Berning said spikes in egg prices are likely at least partly due to a “food scare,” which can fuel increases that are higher than what the market would naturally cause. More stringent animal welfare regulations in California are also influencing costs, he said.

The good news, he said, is that prices in the Southeast are beginning to relent.

“The whole issue is starting to stabilize a little bit now, as they have more control over the flu and take care of the problem,” he said. “We’re still over the historic highs for the prices, but we’re coming back down in the right direction.”

The country’s decision to find new egg sources – like the Netherlands – is helping satisfy the demand, he said.

Whether these positive trends continue remains to be seen.

And as for the virus, itself, Georgia’s 3,600 poultry producers are preparing for its possible arrival this fall, when migrating waterfowl blamed for spreading avian flu return south for the winter.

Though avian influenza poses no known risk to humans, the fast-spreading virus presents real economic threats.

Georgia is a top producer of chickens raised for meat, called broilers, which until now have been mostly unscathed.

The state had a close call last month when three shipments from an infected farm in Iowa were sent to small farms in Georgia, but those flocks were euthanized.

To date, no known case of the avian flu has been confirmed in the state.

“The level of concern is high, and we’re taking it very seriously,” said Mike Giles, president of the Georgia Poultry Federation.

Even if the nation’s poultry and egg producers manage to avoid a recurrence of avian flu, the industry will need time to recover from an outbreak that’s already killed off entire flocks of hens.

“This tight supply is likely to be with us for the rest of the year, at least, and possibly into next year,” Giles said. “And that’s based on what’s already happening.”

Jill Nolin covers the Georgia Statehouse for CNHI’s newspapers and websites. Reach her at jnolin@cnhi.com.