Fantasy forecast: Thanksgiving feast of matchups

Published 10:05 pm Tuesday, November 26, 2013

    Eaten enough food yet? By the time you read this article I will have already eaten at three Thanksgiving gatherings and will have two to go. It’s a good thing that you can be great at fantasy football without being in great shape, because if not lots of us would be in trouble. Fat guys, skinny guys, slow guys, and yes even ugly guys can be stars at fantasy football. I am not sexist, but I know that women can be, and many are, very good at fantasy football as well — just another thing to be thankful for.

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    So, I hope you are starting to see how my rankings work by now. Of course, it is easy to look at the guys that I list as being high on each week, but those guys aren’t ranked for a reason. Last week Andrew Luck did a little worse than I thought, but pretty close. He didn’t have a terrible game (13 pts), and against the Arizona defense that is pretty decent. Keep that in mind moving forward:

    This week there are three games that will be played on Thursday, so I am simply going to break down those matchups. Remember to always check your lineups to make sure players aren’t scratched late. This past Sunday night, I had Julius Thomas listed high, and he went on the field to practice before the game and ended up being held out of the game. You might have more decisions to make this week, because no teams are on bye. So, play close attention to your players matchups and health and finish the regular season strong.

Packers vs. Lions

    Packers — Looks like Aaron Rodgers is out again this week so Matt Flynn should start. I actually like Flynn as a top 25 quarterback, but you should have a safer option on your roster. I really like Eddie Lacy, but this week should be tough sledding for him as Detroit  is the third best running defense. But, if I had him I would play him as a first running back for sure. James Jones and Jarrett Boykin had the best receiving stats Sunday, but Jordy Nelson is the safest play. I might would start any of the three if I had them, but without Rodgers, Nelson is the only safe play. You know who else is on your team, I don’t, so use your best judgment. Mason Crosby is always a good bet to score some points as well.

    Lions — Matthew Stafford is a must-start, and as far as fantasy goes he is an elite quarterback. Calvin Johnson is also a must play, and against the 24th ranked pass defense I really like Nate Burleson as well. Green Bay is better against the run than the pass, but I still like Reggie Bush, especially in PPR leagues. Personally I’m not looking to play either defense/special teams this week, and neither team has a really good tight end.

Steelers vs. Ravens

    Steelers — Ben Roethlisberger is too up and down for me to play against a decent pass defense. My favorite player on the Steelers this week is Antonio Brown, I sure wish I had him. Emmanuel Sanders is next in-line for targets, but is not a safe play, and Le’veon Bell should be pretty well contained against the No. 2 run defense. If Heath Miller is your No. 1 tight end option play him, the Ravens aren’t elite against the tight end, but then again he isn’t an elite tight end either.

    Ravens — The strongest play on this team to me is their defense/special teams. Joe Flacco should have about his usual 9-14 point day and is not a strong play. Ray Rice should be a top 20 play (especially in PPR leagues), but Bernard Pierce has had 10 plus carries in two straight games and that’s something to watch. Torrey Smith actually has the potential to be a top 15 player if Flacco picks things up a bit.

Raiders vs Cowboys

    Raiders — Rashad Jennings is a very strong running back play this week, if Darren McFadden isn’t back. If he is, this will be a time-share and Jenning’s stock drops a bit. I think Matt McGloin could have a good day, and if you just want to be a gambler maybe play him against the 32nd ranked pass defense, but as for me… I am not trusting my playoff seeding to him. If Denarius Moore sits this week Rod Streater could become a sneaky-good play at wide receiver. Avoid the Raiders defense/special teams at all costs.

    Cowboys — This is the team that should have the most fantasy points of the day. Against the 28th ranked pass defense I Really like Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. I also think Jason Witten is a top 5 tight end this week. This Raiders team is much better vs the run (top 5), and for that reason things could be tough for DeMarco Murray, but if the Cowboys get a big lead he may get plenty of carries. If you have Murray you probably can’t afford to sit him. I also think that Dan Bailey and the Cowboys defense/special  are both top 5 plays this week.

    Make sure to keep an eye on the weather from here on out. We saw last week in New England that it can play a big part in real game-planning. That means it should in fantasy game-planning as well.

    End thought: I am thankful that you read this article, and hope that you enjoy it. I am thankful that the great folks at The Meridian Star see fit to run it, and that my wife doesn’t mind me spending so much time studying/watching football to be able to. I am thankful for my health, my family, my country, my freedom, and most of all my salvation. I hope you take some time to count your blessings and to thank those who continue to offer them to you as well.