With Democratic 1st District U.S. Rep. Travis Childers of Booneville now on the record against the current iteration of the House health care reform proposal, his 2010 election dance with Republican challenger state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, R-Tupelo, begins in earnest.

For now, Childers is leading and Nunnelee is following. Childers has almost three times as much cash on hand as Nunnelee, according to finance reports released last week in a House race expected to be the state's most competitive of the 2010 mid-term elections.



Money, money



Childers has raised more than his Republican opponent or $713,106 compared to Nunnelee's $220,454.

But Nunnelee's fundraising effort has been impressive and one of the best in the country among new GOP congressional challengers.

But in this race - with national implications and national interest - money's not likely to be the impediment for either candidate. The Democratic Party badly wants to hold on to Childers's seat. Just as badly, the GOP wants to unseat Childers from a post the party had held for some 14 years prior to Childers's 2008 victory in the special election to choose a successor to now -U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Tupelo.

That race revealed some political friction between Republicans on the east end of the district and the mammoth DeSoto County bloc of votes on the west end of the district. Republicans contenders Greg Davis and Glenn McCullough's heated GOP primary left a fractured GOP landscape.

Childers also benefited from a natural, folksy gift for old-style campaigning that charmed and reassured rural voters in the district who grew weary of being the "flyover" between Tupelo and Hernando over the course of that election.

Today, Nunnelee's biggest stick in running against Childers is his often-repeated reminder that Childers voted for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. That fact alone won't be enough to beat Childers.



It's the economy



But as seen in Virginia and New Jersey, voter discontent over the economy and fear of the future is a powerful, game-changing motivation. That's a given and it helps Nunnelee.

Yet an honest assessment of Rep. Childers' voting record to date would rate him every bit the Blue Dog Democrat he claims to be. Actually, he's voted pretty close to a Republican line. So as the 2010 mid-term election dance begins for Childers and Nunnelee, two things are certain: Childers can't control the economy and Nunnelee can't control Childers.

Nunnelee faces an uphill battle. Why? He's got to help lead the appropriations of state funds when there's no money left to appropriate. It will be tough to do that and make a congressional bid.

But then Childers must make sure his Blue Dog doesn't bark up the wrong political tree. That makes for an interesting, tough campaign.



Contact Sid Salter at (601) 961-7084 or e-mail ssalter@clarionledger.com. Visit his blog at clarionledger.com. His talk radio show, On Deadline with Sid Salter, is broadcast on the SuperTalk Mississippi network.