By James A. Leggette/ guest columnist
The success of this occupation can only be judged 50 years from now. If the Germans have at that time a stable and prosperous democracy, then we shall have succeeded.
— Gen. Dwight Eisenhower
to his staff in 1945
War is generally viewed as the pivotal event that changes the course of history. However, the period following a war is as powerful — if not more powerful — in shaping the future.
It is widely accepted that the harsh terms dictated to Germany following World War I set into motion the forces that gave rise to World War II. In contrast, the rebuilding of Germany and Japan following World War II created not only democracies but also two powerful economies and close allies for the United States.
While the conditions in Iraq today and postwar Germany and Japan are different, the comparison offers important lessons. Perhaps the most dramatic difference between the two postwar periods is that Germany and Japan had accepted their defeats. The long years of war destroyed nearly every major city and left their industrial bases in shambles.
The total destruction of the war had left the average German or Japanese citizen with little will to carry on the fight despite the urging of the diehards. The leadership of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan was dead, often at either their own hands or awaiting war crimes trials. The impact of a guerrilla group, the Werewolves, was limited since the average German had accepted defeat and was more concerned with survival. In Japan, the average citizen was also more concerned with basic needs as well.
Due to the vast destruction in these defeated countries, the United States embarked on an occupation and reconstruction program — i.e., nation-building — that was unprecedented in history. The goal was to restore the German and Japanese economies and to root out the forces that created the dictatorships that led to the war by fostering democracy. Previously, these countries had only experienced the iron hand of dictatorship. Only through massive American aid, notably the Marshall Plan, were these countries able to get on their feet.
Estimates indicate the cost of the Marshall Plan was about 3 percent of gross domestic product, which is about equal to current military expenditures, for several years. Without such aid, Western Europe would have embraced the Soviet Union.
The transition from military occupation to self-rule took a number of years, considerable effort and leadership to succeed. Japan held postwar elections in 1946, and Germany held elections in 1949. The Allied occupation ended in Japan in 1952 and Germany in 1955. Through the transition period, elements sympathetic to the Nazis were rooted out of the government through a process of deNazification.
While postwar Iraq is similar to Germany and Japan, there are important differences. Most important is the nature of the war. Through a strategy of "shock and awe," Saddam Hussein was toppled in weeks rather than years. The American military toppled Saddam's regime with surgical precision, leaving much of the country untouched by war. The Iraqi army melted into the population rather than make a final stand on the battlefield. Learning from the Vietnam War and the Black Hawk Down incident, Saddam may have believed Americans would soon tire of the struggle.
Today in Iraq, the seeds of democracy have been planted. However, it is threatened by an insurgency made up of diverse groups ranging from those who lost power when Saddam fell, to outside groups seeking to create a fundamentalist Islam state. To counter this, the United States has embarked on a program to end the insurgency by rebuilding the Iraq security forces and revitalizing the economy. Both efforts are critical to creating a system where the average Iraqi sees a better future working within it.
Perhaps the most important lesson from the post-World War II period is that reconstruction is a long, hard process and requires a long-term economic and political commitment to succeed. Prior to the invasion of Iraq, Secretary of State Colin Powell stated that if we toppled Saddam's regime, the Pottery Barn rule was in effect: "You break it, you own it." Powell argued this country is responsible for restoring Iraq's government if it toppled the regime.
The military thinker Carl von Clausewitz stated that "war is the continuation of politics by other means." The corollary is equally true: Politics is war by other means. As a result, the period following a war can change history for better or worse.
We will only be able to judge the success of our efforts in Iraq in the future — just as Gen. Eisenhower noted.
Dr. James A. Leggette of Brandon is an economist and talk radio host on Meridian's WMOX-AM. He is collaborating on a book on Ronald Reagan's economic legacy.
