PORT ARTHUR, Texas — In the past eight months since the blow from Rita, hurricanes have not been far from the minds of Southeast Texans, but Thursday marks the day when residents and weather experts officially turn their eyes toward the tropics.

June 1 is the first day of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and experts are predicting another active season.

“For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,” Conrad C. Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, said.

On average, the north Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. In 2005, the Atlantic hurricane season contained a record 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. Seven of these hurricanes were considered “major,” of which a record four hit the United States.

“Although NOAA is not forecasting a repeat of last year's season, the potential for hurricanes striking the U.S. is high,” Lautenbacher said.

Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are factors that will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm’s building cloud structure.

“Whether we face an active hurricane season, like this year, or a below-normal season, the crucial message for every person is the same: prepare, prepare, prepare,” Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center, said. “One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season.”

Emergency planners in Texas have already overhauled hurricane plans and in May conducted the largest disaster drill in the state’s history.

For 2006, officials have put more emphasis on special needs evacuees and improvements along the evacuation routes.

Among changes is an expanded definition of “special needs” to include those who lack transportation or resources to evacuate themselves, not just those twho require special medical attention.

The state has established the 2-1-1 registry, so that special needs evacuees can register for transportation in advance. Those evacuees leaving the area on buses, or even trains this season, will be given an ID bracelet so that their location can be tracked. A sister city shelter program has been set up, so that special needs residents will go to designated cities.

The Texas Department of Public Safety will also implement contra-flow lanes, in which southbound highway lanes will be converted to northbound, in advance of evacuations.

Along the routes, the state has contracted with major oil companies to assure designated gas stations will remain open and with adequate fuel. In 2005, thousands of motorists were stranded for hours after running out of gas as they tried to evacuate.

Restrooms and aid stations will also dot the evacuation routes.

In Jefferson, Orange and Hardin counties, the regional response efforts will be coordinated by Jefferson County Judge Carl Griffith, who was named regional incident commander by area emergency responders. Griffith will work with the other county judges and city mayors on the response efforts.

Although a hurricane task force appointed by Gov. Rick Perry in October recommended that the governor be given the power to call for evacuations, that has not been implemented and the power will remain with Texas mayors and county judges for this hurricane season.

The regional emergency headquarters has been relocated to the offices of the U.S. attorney in downtown Beaumont. Officials determined the building has sufficient security and communication systems to serve as a headquarters.

Area leaders have also set up pre-contracts with vendors to provide generators, ice, water and temporary housing for responders so that recovery work can begin within the first hours after a disaster until federal assistance arrives.

With the record-breaking hurricane season in 2005, experts have been studying a 20-year cycle that will continue to bring more storms. Atlantic hurricane seasons were relatively mild from the 1970s through 1994. Since then, all but two years have been above normal.

Between 1995 and 2005, the Atlantic season has averaged 15 named storms, slightly more than eight named hurricanes and four major hurricanes, according to the hurricane center. From 1971 to 1994, there were an average of 8.5 named storms, five hurricanes and just over one major hurricane.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.



Marilyn Tennissen writes for Port Arthur (Texas) News.